Update (1135ET): Bonds and stocks extended gains after the weaker than expected ISM Services data building on the weak wage growth data in the BLS report. However, while short-dated yields are extending their collapse (2Y Yields -25bps post-Payrolls), the S&P has stalled at critical resistance.
The 2y Yield just crashed…
As rate-hike odds plunge…
Stocks soared but have stalled at around 3900 (S&P)…
As SpotGamma notes, a breakout of 3900 is really needed to lift and extend any gains into something sustainable (3850-3860 remains a key pivot region)…
However, SpotGamma notes that as we are now nearing the heavily-watched 1/12 CPI number, the rally scenario is likely on hold until then.
We would imagine Mr.Powell and his pals are displeased by this “unwarranted” easing.
* * *
Forget the good news in the jobs report – record unemployment and underemployment rates – let’s focus on the weakness in wage growth (all thank to revisions)…
Revisions to average hourly earnings data paint a marginally less worrisome picture for the Fed on wages than the Nov report
The upturn in wage growth in Nov (originally reported as +0.6%) was revised (to +0.4%)
The 4.6% annual wage growth in Dec was the lowest since Aug ’21 pic.twitter.com/1lCjoDjcMe
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 6, 2023
And that ‘bad’ news is just what stocks wanted…
Bond yields plunged led by the short-end…
Gold also spiked, back above $1850…
And the dollar was dumped…
And most importantly, Fed rate trajectory expectations shifted dovishly lower (lower terminal rate and more rate-cuts)…
These easing financial conditions are not what The Fed wants to see.
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