Money-market funds saw a small outflow last week (surprisingly small given how close to Tax-Day we are), leaving them still near record highs over $6 Trillion (and the trend of increased deposits at banks has been accelerating)…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, amid all the talk of tapering QT, The Fed balance sheet was basically unchanged last week (-$1.4BN)…
Source: Bloomberg
…as The Fed’s (now expired) bank bailout facility saw another (the fourth) weekly decline (-$4BN), erasing much of the ‘arb-driven flows’ (blue shaded region) but leaving most of the ‘oh-shit-we-have-hole-the-size-of-France-in-our-balance-sheet’ flows still there ($126BN!!)….
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, at those banks, total seasonally-adjusted deposits fell by $63.8BN last week – after rising for five straight weeks. That was the biggest drop since October.
Source: Bloomberg
Now before you start on “well, this is tax-driven”, we remind you these are ‘seasonally-adjusted’ data – so unless Tax Day changed suddenly, this is a notable decline (also remember this data is lagged by a week)…
Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, deposits rose by a modest $16BN to their highest level since before the SVB crisis…
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding foreign deposits, Domestic deposits fell $70BN SA last week – the biggest weekly drop since October (Large banks -$67BN, Small banks -$3BN) while on an NSA basis, domestic deposits rose $12BN (Large banks -$6.8BN, Small banks +$18.8BN)…
Source: Bloomberg
Loan volumes shrank significantly last week with Small Banks seeing volumes tumble $12BN – the most since the SVB crisis. Large banks also saw loan volumes shrink, by $2.8BN…
Source: Bloomberg
Bank reserves picked up last week – after diving the prior week – but still remain hugely divergent from US equity market cap…
Source: Bloomberg
Again we ask, which happens first? Banks start piling reserves back in or stocks collapse?
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