An ugly jobless claims print was the day’s early catalyst sending yields significantly lower, stocks, gold, oil, and crypto higher and the dollar down with rate-cut expectations re-ignited…
Source: Bloomberg
A dovish shift supported stocks – which had a “squeezey feel” amid very low liquidity…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s trading desk noted that while yesterday was the lightest notional session all year in the US, today is looking to be even slower (tracking down -2% vs. yesterday), which probably helped the liftathon…
The Dow and Small Caps led the way – up almost 1%, and Nasdaq lagged on the day – barely holding on to green…
This was The Dow’s seventh straight daily gain – the longest win streak since July 2023.
And both Hedge Funds and Long-Onlys were sellers today (which leaves buybacks – as we predicted – to save the market)…
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HFs are -7% for sale and lean better for sale in every sector ex- Cons Disc & Macro Products. Supply is most pronounced in Info Tech & Utes which when combined, make up 2/3 of overall HF net supply.
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LOs are -11% for sale with notable supply in Fins & REITs while HCare, Mats, Indust & Info Tech are also net for sale. Demand is modest across Cons Disc, Utes & Macro Products
MAG7 stocks spent a third day going nowhere…
Source: Bloomberg
0-DTE Call-buyers dominated the action today…
Treasuries were bid across the curve today with very early steepening erased by the close thanks to a strong 30Y auction)…
Source: Bloomberg
A small net inflow into ETFs yesterday supported bitcoin and as the dollar sank, crypto was bid today too…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged back above $2340…
Source: Bloomberg
As the dollar dived…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended marginally higher, after chopping around much of the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, while fear is gone through Monday, it returns for CPI and vol is pricing in some anxiety next week…
Source: Bloomberg
That ‘7’-handle vol for Monday looks very cheap.
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