“Double That Of Past Election Cycles”: Marriott Says Election Weighing On Hotel Demand 

Shares of Marriott International slumped 2% on Monday after the Bethesda, Maryland-based hotel company slashed its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. The gloomy outlook missed the average analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg. 

During a Monday morning earnings call, Marriott CFO Leeny Oberg told investors that consumers had pulled back on travel this month, citing headwinds around mounting US election uncertainty.  

“Fourth quarter REVPAR [revenue per available room] growth in the US and Canada is currently expected to be generally in line with the third quarter with strong leisure and BP trends in October, offsetting weakness in November due to tomorrow’s election. The election impact on US and Canada REVPAR is forecasted to be around negative 300 basis points in November, and negative 100 basis points for the quarter, double that of past election cycles, as we have meaningfully lower transient and group room nights on the books for both this week and next,” Oberg said. 

Marriott CEO Anthony Capuano told investors that fourth-quarter revenues were trending “roughly flat” due to the negative impact of the US election. 

Here’s a snapshot of Marriott’s third-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Adjusted EPS $2.26 vs. $2.11 y/y, estimate $2.31

• EPS $2.07 vs. $2.51 y/y

• Revenue $6.26 billion, +5.5% y/y, estimate $6.27 billion

• North America REVPAR change in constant currency +2.1%

• Worldwide REVPAR change in constant currency +3%

• Adjusted Ebitda $1.23 billion, +7.6% y/y, estimate $1.24 billion

• Adjusted operating income $1.02 billion, +6% y/y, estimate $1.04 billion

• Adjusted operating margin 62% vs. 62% y/y, estimate 64.2%

• Total location count 9,068, +4.5% y/y, estimate 8,851

• Total rooms at end of period 1.67 million, +5.9% y/y, estimate 1.67 million

Fourth quarter forecast:

• Sees adjusted EPS $2.31 to $2.39, estimate $2.43

• Sees adjusted Ebitda $1.24 billion to $1.27 billion, estimate $1.28 billion

• Sees Gross fee revenues $1.29 billion to $1.31 billion

Full-year forecast:

• Sees adjusted EPS $9.19 to $9.27, saw $9.23 to $9.40, estimate $9.36 (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees adjusted Ebitda $4.93 billion to $4.96 billion, saw $4.95 billion to $5.02 billion, estimate $4.99 billion

• Sees Gross fee revenues $5.13 billion to $5.15 billion, saw $5.13 billion to $5.18 billion

Besides Marriott, earnings call mentions of “election” have surged this earnings season, surpassing the number of mentions in the prior election cycle and rivaling the +3,000 mentions in the fourth quarter of 2016. 

Blame it on the election uncertainty – classic.