Molson Coors Says US Beer Demand Sinks In “Challenged Macroeconomic Environment”

Molson Coors Beverage Co., the company behind Miller Lite, Molson Canadian, and Blue Moon, reported third-quarter sales that missed Wall Street expectations and forecasted a decline for the year. The brewer cited a challenging macroeconomic environment in the US that pressured consumers, reducing beer demand for the quarter. 

For the quarter ending Sept. 30, net sales declined 7.8% to $3.04 billion, below the Bloomberg consensus of $3.13 billion. The brewer noted that its European and Asian business units performed strongly, as did Canada within its Americas business unit, but it pointed to an extraordinarily weak environment in the US.

“However, the US was challenged with the macroeconomic environment along with anticipated unfavorable shipment timing and the wind-down of a contract brewing agreement contributing to a US financial volume decline of 17.9%,” Molson wrote in a press release under the CEO AND CFO perspectives. 

Here’s a snapshot of third-quarter earnings that painted a rather dismal situation for the brewer’s US beer unit (Bloomberg):

Underlying EPS $1.80 vs. $1.92 y/y, estimate $1.67 (Bloomberg Consensus)

Underlying Ebitda $692.3 million, -6.8% y/y, estimate $679.9 million

Net sales $3.04 billion, -7.8% y/y, estimate $3.13 billion

• Americas net sales $2.35 billion, -11% y/y, estimate $2.4 billion
• EMEA & APAC net sales $704.4 million, +5.1% y/y, estimate $714.7 million

Foreign Currency Impact in sales -7.4%, estimate 0.05%

Financial volume 20.63 million hectoliters, -12% y/y, estimate 21.56 million

• Americas volume 14.70 million hectoliters, -16% y/y, estimate 15.22 million
• EMEA & APAC volume 5.94 million hectoliters, -3% y/y, estimate 6.21 million

Worldwide brand volume 21.33 million hectoliters, -9.3% y/y, estimate 20.77 million

Underlying effective tax rate 24% vs. 20% y/y, estimate 24.5%

Due to sliding beer demand in the US unit, Molson guided 2024 top-line guidance down… 

Given the impacts the macroeconomic environment has had on the US beer industry and our US financial volumes during this year’s peak selling season, we are adjusting our 2024 top-line guidance to down approximately 1% from previous guidance of up low single-digits, both on a constant currency basis. However, we are reaffirming our underlying income (loss) before income taxes on a constant currency basis for the year because of an improved cost outlook related to packaging materials, transportation and general and administrative expenses. And we are reaffirming our underlying diluted earnings per share guidance of mid single-digit growth, but narrowing to the higher end of the range, driven by the accelerated pace of our share repurchase program.

Meanwhile, the inflation-driven misery storm unleashed by the Biden-Harris regime has sent US per capita alcohol consumption to the highest levels since the inflation storm in the 1970s. 

If alcohol consumption rises and beer demand slides, this only means spirits and wine are in demand. Goldman’s Olivier Nicolaï told clients last month that tequila is in hot demand.