How A 2nd Trump Administration Might Affect Foreign Policy

Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke and Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The second administration of President-elect Donald Trump is anticipated to bring great change to America’s foreign policy establishment.

From wars in Europe and the Middle East to an increasingly adversarial relationship with China in the Indo-Pacific, Trump has vowed to make sweeping changes to the way the United States approaches international statecraft.

That has some in the foreign policy establishment in Washington on edge. Still, others are confident that there will be a winding down of armed conflicts worldwide as the nation’s highest office embraces a more assertive and, at times, confrontational tone with allies and adversaries alike.

Staring China Down in the Indo-Pacific

Among the most pressing threats to be tackled by the second Trump administration is an increasingly adversarial China, whose ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has repeatedly sought to undermine U.S. interests throughout the world in recent years.

Key to doing that will be to shore up alliances in the region, including with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, as well as reaffirming Washington’s commitment to defend Taiwan from CCP aggression.

John Mills, who previously served as the director for cybersecurity policy, strategy, and international affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, said that the nation’s regional partners would welcome the clarity that a second Trump administration would bring to Washington’s foreign policy.

“These countries love the authenticity and clarity of Trump,” Mills told The Epoch Times.

Likewise, Mills said he believes that same clarity would help thwart an overt military conflict between China and the United States from erupting.

“The likelihood of conflict in the western Pacific decreases significantly under Trump,” Mills said. “Why? Because he’s showing clarity and resolve at all times. Clarity and resolve help prevent war. Lack of clarity and resolve creates war.

“Trump 2.0 in the western Pacific will significantly decrease the likelihood of open conflict between the CCP and the Western world.”

To that end, Mills said that the CCP is less likely to engage in overtly hostile acts against the United States under the incoming administration than the Biden administration because Chinese authorities “know they will be held accountable.”

Casey Fleming, CEO of the global risk and intelligence advisory firm BlackOps Partners, said he expects the CCP to curb its more overt malign activity under a second Trump administration.

“A Trump administration will put the CCP on notice and will challenge their unbridled aggression in the Indo-Pacific and throughout the world,” Fleming told The Epoch Times.

Confronting a War in Europe

During his first administration, Trump gained a prickly reputation for toughness with U.S. allies in Europe. He repeatedly threatened to leave the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the world’s largest military alliance, due to a disparity in how much the United States contributed compared to other allies.

Many of the nation’s NATO partners have significantly upped their defense spending since then, both in reaction to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and out of a concern that a Trump administration would not come to their aid if they were perceived as piggybacking on U.S. defense spending.

Trump has also made ending the war in Ukraine swiftly a key campaign pledge, positioning himself in stark contrast to the outgoing Biden administration, which pledged security assistance to embattled Kyiv for as long as it would take to secure Ukrainian victory, though never defined what that victory would look like.

While Trump has said he’d focus on bringing both sides to the negotiating table, Paul Davis, foreign policy analyst and adjunct professor at the Institute for World Politics, doesn’t expect a dramatic drop-off in U.S. support for Ukraine anytime soon.

“I don’t think Trump is going to change a lot,” Davis said. “He did have a meeting with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy] back in September, and I think he understands the need to maintain support.”

Likewise, Mills added that a second Trump administration would unlikely pull back its support for partners and allies in Europe so long as those nations carry their own weight in defense spending.

“All that is being asked is at least 2 percent of GDP spent on defense and, in reality, 4 to 5 percent is the new 2 percent,” Mills said.

“That’s all. That is the primary metric Trump looks at [with] partners, and I think that’s extremely reasonable.”

Defending Israel in the Middle East

The second Trump administration will also inherit a precarious situation in the Middle East as Israel expands its war against Iranian proxy groups in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and Yemen.

Trump has repeatedly given vociferous support for Israel and is likely to go to great lengths to ensure the nation has the full support of the United States, following a falling out between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Joe Biden over Israel’s conduct in the war in Gaza.

Davis said that he expects Trump “will definitely make sure that the world knows that Israel is secured by the U.S. military.”

To that end, it appears Israeli leadership expects the same. Netanyahu was the first foreign leader to call President-elect Trump in the early hours of the morning after the election was called. Netanyahu congratulated Trump on the election and discussed the Iranian threat, according to an Israeli readout of the call.