UMich Inflation Expectations Jump To 16-Year-High, Democrats’ Confidence Crushed

Longer-term inflation jumped to their highest since June 2008, according to the latest UMich Sentiment survey, while short-term inflation expectations dropped to four year lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, on the heels of a positive PMI surprise – based on Trump – UMich sentiment declined in November (from preliminary to final) but was higher overall (even though current conditions dipped)…

Source: Bloomberg

Post-election interviews were 1.3 points below the pre-election reading, moderating the improvement seen earlier in the month.

Overall, the stability of national sentiment this month obscures discordant partisan patterns.

In a mirror image of November 2020, the expectations index surged for Republicans and fell for Democrats this month, a reflection of the two groups’ incongruous views of how Trump’s policies will influence the economy.

But while the Dems are sad, overall Americans are positive on Trump’s policies…

Another UMich data series worth watching: The percentage of respondents offering unsolicited positive comments about government economic policies. Notice the shift in ’16 — expect a bigger spike in Dec’s release, which will fully reflect post-election responses. WSL ELECTION<GO> pic.twitter.com/bKVjiOyK2V

— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) November 22, 2024

Wait until December’s data bakes all the pro-Trump panic in.