“The Math Doesn’t Work”: CNN Panelist Says Dems At Massive Disadvantage From Early Voting Deficit

A CNN panel looked shocked after guest Marc Lotter suggested a significant shortfall in Democrat early voting vs. 2020 portends a bad time for Kamala Harris.

“The math doesn’t work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas,” said Lotter. “They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters.”

“Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000,” he continued, noting that “Democrats have to win their races early. Republicans generally win them on election day.”

“The margins don’t add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states.”

“The math doesn’t work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas.”

“They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters.”

“Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000.”

“Democrats have to win their… pic.twitter.com/zarBQ7RY7o

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) November 5, 2024

h/t Kyle Becker

Lotter’s comments come after the Trump campaign touted bullish data showing Republicans gaining ground with the early vote in battleground states vs. the 2020 election cycle.

According to the campaign, new and infrequent voters are leaning more Republican than Democrat based on the latest indications from Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the NY Post reports, citing a source in the camp.

“In those states, Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet” — despite early voting being closed in nearly every state — “and many not having even requested a mail ballot,” the source said, suggesting that Democrat turnout might not be as strong this time around.

According to the Post, here’s some of the data that allies of the campaign have been privately touting – mixed with early-voter information:

Arizona

Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 8 points.

Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.

Early voting in the Grand Canyon State closed Nov. 1. Men comprised about 50% of the votes for Republicans and 40% for Democrats, according to the data shared with The Post.

Other groups have reported apparent advantages for Republicans here, too. For instance, there have been 924,524 GOP ballot returns, relative to 736,569 for Democrats, according to early-vote data compiled by UpLift Campaigns.

Georgia

The Peach State doesn’t have voter registration information for its early votes.

Looking at data from Democratic analyst Tom Bonier, the African American early vote and mail turnout dipped 7% relative to 2020.

Early voting in Georgia stopped Nov. 1. Its turnout soared to 4,004,588 both through early voting and absentee voting by mail this year, compared to the 2,697,822 early voters four years ago, according to data from the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

Michigan

The Wolverine State similarly lacks voter registration information for its early votes.

But the Trump campaign is touting data suggesting that in-person early voters represent about 32% of the pre-Election Day votes cast and that its supporters typically favor in-person voting. In-person early voting is new in Michigan.

More than 2.58 million of the over 7 million people registered to vote in Michigan have cast early votes, according to data from the Michigan Secretary of State’s Office.

North Carolina

Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 1 point.

Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.

This appears to be the first time Republicans have ever clinched the early vote in North Carolina.

Data from Bonier suggests that African American mail and early-vote returns have sunk 22% relative to 2020 here. Men comprised about 37% of the Democratic support and 49% of Republican support.

In-person early voting in the Old North State stopped Nov. 2.

There have been about 4.4 million early votes cast out of the roughly 7.8 million registered voters in North Carolina, including 1,478,496 for Republicans, 1,436,861 for Democrats and 1,524,094 without a party registration, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Nevada

Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 4 points.

Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 8 points.

Early in-person voting was closed off Nov. 1. Roughly 42% of Democratic votes came from men and 52% from Republicans.

Across the board, Nevada saw about 1,077,441 voters turn out early, including 406,705 from Republicans and 363,595 from Democrats, according to data.

Pennsylvania

Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Democrats up 23 points

Relative to 2020: Republicans are faring 22 points better.

The Trump campaign believes that Democrats’ early-vote advantage in the Keystone State has slipped from past elections, with total absentee ballots plummeting about 29% relative to the 2020 cycle.

There have been at least 1,739,606 early votes cast in Pennsylvania, including 971,615 from Democrats and 571,725 from Democrats, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab data.

Wisconsin

The Badger State lacks voter registration information for its early votes.

Still, the Trump campaign believes that early votes and mail-in ballots have slipped 23% since 2020 and that mail-in ballot requests are down 52% from 2020.

There have been at least 1,338,728 early votes cast in Wisconsin, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. There are more than 4.7 million registered voters there.

Approximately 76 million early votes have been cast across the country, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab vs. 252 million in the 2020 election, in which early voting generally favored Democrats, while in-person voting leaned Republican.